Migration Nation

The whole thing about real estate is, where are
all the people going and, what is it they buy when
they get there?

Go ahead, Google it.

The Great Atlantic Migration.

A doozy, that one.

And. . . there’s one big thing about it that may surprise you (it did me): it holds the top spot as. . .

The Most Massive
Of All Migrations
in History!

Period.

First major wave was the mass movements from Ireland and Germany to North America starting in the 1840s. Not that long ago, really.

The greatest migration since then is, well, you’re looking at it. . . right now.

Right here in America.

And, in its crosshairs is…Texas.

And, in several layers, starting with Millennials, the largest generation of the U.S. now, if you’ve been keeping up with current events.

So, Layer #1:  Millennial piglets swept the field on new mortgages – 53% of the pie, compared to Gen Xers at 32%, Baby Boomers at 12%.  Here’s a visual of Realtor.com’s findings for Spring 2020:

Their favorite food group?  Not Austin, not Dallas, not Houston or San Antonio.  (Yes, Austin is hot, but its growing pains – defunding the police is just one -- are forcing buyers elsewhere.)

More like an hour’s drive from those: Kyle, Pflugerville, Leander, Kerens,Tool, Mabank, Corsicana, --- all rural Texas villages (we’ve looked in all of them) on the outskirts of those overpriced real estate and escalating violence locales.

You’re remoting in now, no commute, live where you want.

Layer #2:  Urbanites fleeing the same evils.  Had enough of Covid 19 & watching the likes of NYC morph into Gotham City nationwide.  Wave after wave they exit, skyrocketing rural land sales up 17.63 percent to a record $1.69 billion. Thus, Texas numbers like this:

Layer #3:  Can’t leave out the Generation Xers and Baby Boomers, the tall dogs at the Trough of Disposable Income. Their favorite group is a two-hour-drive-away second home.  My personal fave is Hochatown, Beaver Bend Reservoir, Oklahoma.  (Yes, we’re looking there too.)

Look: with lumber prices at all-time highs, home sales at levels last seen in 2006 and stocks on a tear -- who’s to say we’re not in a bubble?  We’ll see.  In the meantime, that Marcus & Millichap webinar I tuned into a few weeks back says dig in, hang tight and ride this one until its knees turn to dust. We’re in for a return on the magnitude of The Roaring 20s before this migration pig makes it all the way through the python, and big prices are coming with it.